2031 Metrics · target 8 of 8 · code 1

US$1 billion a year from beef exports

Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓

Headline target: not assessableproposed from US$1.0m (Comtrade 2024) or about US$5.9m (2025, converted from kwacha) there is no pace on record at scale.
Supporting target: Herd of 11 million, from the April 2023 survey
Baseline: (2023)
Target: by end-2031, assumed
Growth needed: a year
Best on record: a year
Needed ÷ best: stretchproposed

Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.

To assess the beef-export target (L1–L2), we would need to reconcile reporting years, product coverage and the recent estimate's currency conversion, then examine market access and export capacity. Herd growth alone does not establish export earnings; the target remains not assessable here. Inspect the evidence ↓

The record

Cattle herd (the supporting target: 11 million head) (head)

Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.

Recorded
Required path
Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
Target

Source: Number of cattle (FAOSTAT mirror) (Our World in Data / FAO). Source note: secondary copy of FAOSTAT; FAO flags and imputations not checked; earlier jump 2011 2,539,797 to 2012 3,922,107. Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.

Data table (10 points)

Period	head
2015	3,946,348
2016	3,793,263
2017	3,718,729
2018	3,714,667
2019	3,927,432
2020	3,814,438
2021	4,114,604
2022	4,698,972
2023	5,115,495
2024	4,887,687

The claim

earn 1 billion U.S. dollars annually from beef exports

President Hichilema, opening of the 14th National Assembly, 9 October 2026, p. 10, 39. No target year is given.

Related claims in the speech

targetThe national cattle herd will more than double to 11 million. (p. 10)
targetMore disease-free compartments, traceability, beef marketing centres, regional veterinary labs and vaccination. (p. 10)

Baseline audit

Beef exports and disease status

verification incomplete

Beef exports about US$5.9m (2025, converted from K148.3m / 677.2 t); US$1.03m (2024, UN Comtrade, re-opened); FMD endemic, no WOAH-recognised status

Against the speech: US$1bn a year is about 170x the 2025 value.
Where it comes from: Ministry statement via press (kwacha) and UN Comtrade; WOAH resolution lists (agent-opened)
What would make it wrong: ZRA or ITC trade data in US$ for 2025.

All 10 records for L2

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
677.2	t beef exports, valued at K148,265,640.98 (2021: 94.7 t, K5,452,470) “beef exports rising sharply to 677.2 metric tonnes valued at K148,265,640.98 in 2025”	2025	Govt reports gains in livestock and fisheries sectors secondary · LT:S11	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
5.87	US$ million equivalent (about US$8.66/kg)	2025	World Bank WDI PA.NUS.FCRF, Zambia derived · LT:S16	D · Calculated from cited inputs	No independent recheck logged
1,025,790	US$ beef exports HS 0201+0202 to the world (362.8 t; main destination DRC)	2024	UN Comtrade public preview API, reporter 894, HS 0201/0202, flow X primary · LT:S15	V · Primary source opened	Logged source recheck: V19
US$1 billion	annual beef export target: undated (Mar and Sep 2025), by 2031 (Mar and Apr 2026), by 2026 (PDU page) “US$1 billion annual export target by 2031”	2025-2026	Zambia eyes regional beef markets, targets $1 billion by 2031 secondary · LT:S21	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
K1 billion	beef export target in kwacha (about US$40 million at the 2025 average rate)	14 May 2025	Govt plans to export beef worth K1bn (ZNBC) secondary · LT:S10	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
FMD is endemic	Department of Veterinary Services statement to WOAH Africa “FMD is endemic in Zambia”	Sept 2023	FMD in Zambia 2020 to 2023 primary · LT:S25	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
not listed	Zambia in WOAH Resolutions 19 (FMD status) and 20 (endorsed control programmes)	22 May 2026	WOAH GS93 Resolutions 19 and 20 (FMD status; control programmes) primary · LT:S24	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
16	Animal Disease-Free Compartments certified (Zambian certification, not a WOAH status)	21 Apr 2026	Zambia certifies 16 disease-free compartments secondary · LT:S22	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
15 Oct 2025	first official beef consignment to the DRC	2025	Hichilema says Zambia set to export first beef consignment to DR Congo secondary · LT:S20	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
16 Feb 2026	Zambia suspended livestock imports from South Africa (ban still reported 10 Jun 2026)	2026	Zambia shuts border to South African livestock secondary · LT:S27	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions (5), reported, never averaged

2021 volume: Ministry 94.7 t vs Comtrade 543.2 t; the cause is unknown.
Unit value: 2025 is about US$8.66/kg (from the kwacha figures) against US$2.46-2.83/kg in Comtrade 2021-24. Product mix is unverified.
Scale: US$1bn is about 170 times the 2025 value (US$5.87m) and about 975 times the 2024 Comtrade value (arithmetic).
The US$1bn target carries four different horizons (undated, 2026, 2031, and the kwacha variant).
A Kapala claim of '20,000 tonnes of beef in September, generating $200 million' (Zambia Is Back, 28 Aug 2025) has no outcome found.

Cattle herd

verification caveat

Cattle 5,115,495 head (30 Apr 2023 survey); FAOSTAT 4.89M (2024, modelled)

8 records, against the speech and kill criterion

Against the speech: 11 million is 2.15x the last measured herd; the earlier official targets were 7.0-7.4M by 2027; no source for 11M was found.
What would make it wrong: A 2024 or 2025 livestock survey.

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
5,115,495	head, closing stock “Cattle population was 5,115,495”	30 Apr 2023	2023 Livestock Survey Report primary · LT:S5	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
4,940,718	head, opening stock (+174,777, +3.5%)	1 May 2022	2023 Livestock Survey Report primary · LT:S5	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
3,654,668	head (2017/18 Livestock and Aquaculture Census) “The Cattle population (both Household and Establishment) as at census date was 3,654,668”	census date 2017	Zambia only has 3.4 million goats-Livestock Census secondary · LT:S6	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
5.1 million	'current' cattle population	23 Feb 2025	Livestock ministry, ZNS partner to boost cattle population secondary · LT:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
7 million	target by 2027 (Permanent Secretary Cheelo)	undated page	Government targets seven million cattle by 2027 official-comms · LT:S9	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
7.4 million	target by 2027 (Minister Kapala) “from the current 5.1 million to 7.4 million by 2027”	14 May 2025	Govt plans to export beef worth K1bn (ZNBC) secondary · LT:S10	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
7 million	target by 2026	undated	Livestock Value Chains official-comms · LT:S13	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
2.15x	11 million vs the 2023 survey count	arithmetic	2023 Livestock Survey Report derived · LT:S5	D · Calculated from cited inputs	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:

2022: FAOSTAT 4.70M vs survey opening stock 4.94M (1 May 2022).
2024: FAOSTAT shows 4.89M, down from 2023; no national measured count for 2024 or 2025 was found.
Growth rate: the survey gives +3.5% for 2022-23. A government-aligned blog (Zambia Is Back, 28 Aug 2025) says 'growing at a rate of 8.2% per year' since 2024, with no source.
Target: 7.0M vs 7.4M by 2027, and 7M by 2026 on the PDU page.
A commentary gives about 1.75 million for Southern in 2024 citing a '2024 Integrated Agricultural Survey' (not opened); the survey's own Southern count is 2.13M.

What the target implies

The headline target is not assessable on the evidence in hand. Beef exports (US$1 billion): from US$1.0m (Comtrade 2024) or about US$5.9m (2025, converted from kwacha) there is no pace on record at scale.

A supporting target can be tested against the record:

10.0%growth a year, for 8 years

From 5.12 million (2023) to 11 million by the end of 2031: 2.2x the baseline.

Best sustained pace on record: 6.6% a year (2018-2023, 5-year window)
Required ÷ best: 1.5x stretchproposed
Without the 25% base rule: best 6.6% (2018-2023), ratio 1.5x stretchproposed

Assumed target year2031

The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.

Note on the baseline: base is the April 2023 survey, the latest measured count; no timeframe is given in the press reports

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Capital and delivery

Capital and delivery · draft discussion question

What saleable export volume and price deliver the revenue target, with market access secured?

Track animal health, certification, processing and cold-chain access alongside herd numbers. Revenue depends on both volume and realised price.

Editorial question based on the cited audit items; the answer still needs verification. No cost verdict or financing commitment is established.

Evidence and limits

Audit records: L1, L2. Sources: ZamStats / MFL (LT:S5); Lusaka Times (LT:S6); Zambia Monitor (LT:S8); MFL (LT:S9).

Confidence in the underlying record: L1: High for the 2023 level and provincial split (primary survey). Medium for the target history. Low for any 2024-26 herd size (no measured count). L2: Low-medium. The 2025 kwacha figure is a single government-statement source and the volumes conflict with Comtrade for 2021. The FMD status reading is high confidence (primary WOAH lists).

What would change the discussion: A 2024 or 2025 livestock survey. ZRA or ITC trade data in US$ for 2025.

Competing explanation: better use of existing assets, shared infrastructure or a different product mix could change the required expansion; demand, water or commissioning constraints could limit its return.

Explore the project evidence and its limits →

Band, and what would change it

Proposed band:not assessableproposed

A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.

Proposed band for each target by assumed target year: required growth divided by the best pace on record.
Target	end-2028	end-2029	end-2030	end-2031	end-2032	end-2033	end-2034	end-2035
Herd of 11 million, from the April 2023 surveybeyond precedent to 2029 · stretch 2030-2034 · on pace from 2035	2.5x beyond precedent	2.1x beyond precedent	1.7x stretch	1.5x stretch	1.3x stretch	1.2x stretch	1.1x stretch	1.0x on pace
US$1 billion a year from beef exports	not assessable: from US$1.0m (Comtrade 2024) or about US$5.9m (2025, converted from kwacha) there is no pace on record at scale.

on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.

All targets on the assumption map →

Confidence in the baseline: Low-medium. The 2025 kwacha figure is a single government-statement source and the volumes conflict with Comtrade for 2021. The FMD status reading is high confidence (primary WOAH lists).
What would change it: ZRA or ITC trade data in US$ for 2025.

Audit findings for this target

The audited 2024 trade figure and provisional 2025 conversion put beef export earnings at about US$1-6 million a year, on different reporting bases, against a US$1 billion target. Provisional reading · confidence: medium
Evidence: UN Comtrade 2024 US$1.03m (re-opened); 2025 about US$5.9m converted from a ministry kwacha figure. Kill criterion: US$ trade data for 2025 showing much higher values. Competing explanation: The 2025 kwacha figure may include other products or be mis-converted.

These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.