2031 Metrics · target 4 of 8 · code 3
3 million tonnes of copper a year
Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓
- Baseline
- (2025)
- Target
- by end-2031, assumed
- Growth needed
- a year
- Best on record
- a year
- Needed ÷ best
- beyond precedentproposed
Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.
To strengthen the copper comparison (K1–K4), we would need to corroborate the government-origin baseline, reconcile historical data vintages and check project schedules and electricity-use definitions. Announced output remains a plan rather than an achieved result. Inspect the evidence ↓
The record
Copper mine output (USGS yearbooks) (tonnes)
Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.
- Recorded
- Required path
- Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
- Target
Source: Zambia Minerals Yearbook chapters (2000, 2005, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017-18, 2019, 2020-21) (USGS). Source note: Do not splice with the concentrate-only series below. Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.
Data table (19 points)
| Period | tonnes |
|---|---|
| 1996 | 334,000 |
| 1997 | 281,467 |
| 1998 | 258,607 |
| 1999 | 209,000 |
| 2001 | 312,000 |
| 2002 | 341,000 |
| 2003 | 348,000 |
| 2004 | 426,900 |
| 2005 | 447,000 |
| 2006 | 474,000 |
| 2007 | 509,000 |
| 2008 | 555,000 |
| 2009 | 698,000 |
| 2010 | 686,000 |
| 2011 | 663,000 |
| 2012 | 695,000 |
| 2013 | 760,000 |
| 2014 | 708,000 |
| 2015 | 712,000 |
Explore the levers
Where would 3 Mt come from? Start from 2025's , add what each named project says it will add over its own 2025 level, and see how much of the target has no project behind it. Figures come from company releases, the Ministry, S&P and press reports of announcements; the table gives each source.
- expansion of an operating mine
- restart
- new mine
- no named project
- Arithmetic on announced figures, not a forecast. Most figures are company targets or press reports, and several conflict; the table lists each one with its source. Ranges (Kansanshi's guidance, KCM's two targets) show as whiskers.
- Left out: Sentinel (no growth planned), Lubambe (its target is concentrate, not copper), Kalengwa (no tonnage found), and any growth in small-scale and tailings output. Today's small-scale output is already inside the 2025 national figure.
- 2025 national output is the Ministry's figure; project levels come from companies and S&P, so the bases are not perfectly consistent.
The projects and their sources
| Project | Kind | 2025 level | Announced figure | Adds | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansanshi S3 | expansion of an operating mine | 2025 · FQM 2025 prelim and 2026-28 guidance | 15 Jan 2026 · FQM 2025 prelim and 2026-28 guidance | +79 kt | in commercial production since 1 Dec 2025; figure is 2028 guidance |
| Lumwana Super Pit | expansion of an operating mine | 2025e · Zambia country profile | 22 Jan 2025 · Media statement, performance of mining sector 2024 | +89 kt | first copper targeted for the end of Q1 2028 (Barrick) |
| KCM (Konkola) | restart | 2025 · Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t | (also 200 kt) 7 Sep 2026 · Konkola Deep drives toward 300,000 t · Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani | +220 kt | restarted; company targets conflict (200 kt for 2028, 300 kt by 2030 or 2031) |
| Mopani | restart | + 40.27% (2025 growth) 2024 · Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani · Copper production edges up in H1 2026 | 5 May 2026 · Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani | +89 kt | output rising; 2025 level derived from the 2024 estimate and the Ministry's 40.27% growth |
| Luanshya / 28 Shaft | restart | not producing | 23 Apr 2026 · Luanshya restart | +100 kt | restart announced for Aug 2026; not confirmed |
| Kitumba | new mine | not producing | 18 Apr 2025 · Sinomine targets 2026 production at Kitumba | +50 kt | production targeted for Sep 2026; not confirmed; capacity from a search snippet |
| Mingomba | new mine | not producing | 30 Sep 2026 · Zambia copper boom draws $5bn | +300 kt | shaft-sinking began Apr 2026; first output 'early 2030s' |
Next in this beat: the constraint model (power, water, freight per tonne), built from Copper Frontier.
The claim
target of 3 million tonnes of copper annually
Related claims in the speech
- assertionMining is experiencing a strong resurgence, with more brownfield and greenfield investment. (p. 11)
- reportedCopperbelt output is recovering and North-Western and other provinces keep increasing. (p. 11)
- reportedKonkola Copper Mines, Mopani, 28 Shaft and Kalengwa have been revitalised. (p. 11)
- reportedMingomba, Kitumba, Kansanshi S3 and the Lumwana Super Pit are generating momentum. (p. 11)
Baseline audit
National copper output
verification caveatCopper 890,345.79 t (2025), up 8% on 825,513.01 t; H1 2026 447,181.93 t (+0.45%)
- Against the speech
- 2024 was first reported as 820,676 t and restated with no explanation; basis (concentrate or cathode) is not stated.
- Where it comes from
- One Ministry figure repeated by three outlets (re-opened twice); USGS independently estimates 940,000 t
- What would make it wrong
- The Ministry's own 2025 statement or ZamStats giving a different total.
All 8 records for K1
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 890,345.79 | t copper “Zambia recorded an eight percent increase in copper production in 2025, rising to 890,345.79 tonnes” | CY2025 | Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t secondary · CU:S2 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V09 |
| 890,346 | t “This figure represents an 8% increase compared to the 825,513 tonnes reported in 2024.” | CY2025 | Zambia's 2025 copper output rises 8% secondary · CU:S3 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V10 |
| 940,000 | t Cu content (estimate) | 2025e | Copper, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 primary · CU:S5 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V11 |
| 825,513.01 | t | CY2024 as restated Jan 2026 | Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t secondary · CU:S2 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 820,676.34 | t “The total output for 2024 was 820,676.34 metric tonnes (Mt)” | CY2024 as first reported 22 Jan 2025 | Media statement, performance of mining sector 2024 primary · CU:S1 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 447,181.93 | t “rose by 0.45 percent to 447,181.93 tonnes” | H1 2026 | Copper production edges up in H1 2026 secondary · CU:S14 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 208,992.66 | t | Q1 2026 | Q1 2026 copper production, survey, MRC (Kabuswe briefing) secondary · CU:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 746,679.4 | t | Jan-Oct 2025 | Zambia records ~747,000 t in October secondary · CU:S16 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions (5), reported, never averaged
- 2024 was first reported as 820,676.34 t (Jan 2025) and restated as 825,513.01 t (Jan 2026): +4,836.67 t (+0.59%, arithmetic). No source explains the revision. Other 2024 variants: 824,425 t (Ministry of Finance via CTPD) and 825,271 t (National Assembly via SMM).
- 2020: 882,061 t (Ministry, 2021) vs 837,996 t (ZamStats, 2022): same year, two agencies, a 44 kt gap, no explanation. 2019 also appears as 776,430 in a search summary (unverified).
- 2025: Ministry 890,346 t vs USGS estimate 940,000 t.
- 2023: 698,000 (Chamber) / 728,558 (MoF via CTPD) / 732,583 (Ministry). 2013: 763,000 (SAIMM) vs 'over 800,000' (ZDA). 2000: 250,000 (SAIMM) vs 194,500 (USGS).
- USGS 'mine production' changed definition between yearbooks (see the two USGS series). Do not splice.
The 3 Mt target: origin, restatements, independent views
verification caveat3 Mt by 2031 (strategy Aug 2024); needs 22.4% a year from 2025; Ministry says 'on track'; PwC: about 1.8 Mt from known and committed projects
13 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- The government's own split needs 1.25 Mt from greenfield projects not yet built.
- What would make it wrong
- The PwC report text or the strategy document.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2031 | the date attached to the 3 Mt strategy “National 3 Million Metric Tonnes Copper Production Strategy by 2031” | launched on a Thursday, reported 30 Aug 2024 | Zambia unveils copper, critical minerals strategies secondary · CU:S19 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 2031 | date restated by the Ministry “the Ministry launched the three million tonnes copper production strategy by 2031” | 22 Jan 2025 | Media statement, performance of mining sector 2024 primary · CU:S1 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1.5 | Mt of the 3 Mt expected from expansions at existing mines; about 1.25 Mt greenfield; small-scale the remainder “about 1.5 million metric tonnes would come from expansions at existing mines” | 22 Jul 2026 | Zambian govt confident of 3 Mt by 2031 secondary · CU:S21 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V12 |
| 1.25 | Mt of the 3 Mt from greenfield projects (the same Ministry split) | 22 Jul 2026 | Zambian govt confident of 3 Mt by 2031 secondary · CU:S21 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1.5 Mt / 150 kt / 50 kt | existing / tailings-slag / artisanal split | 12 May 2026 | Skillings piece on the strategy secondary · CU:S22 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| remains on track | the Ministry's own lede on the 3 Mt by 2031 target “Zambia remains on track to achieve its target of producing three million metric tonnes” | 23 Jul 2026 | Zambian govt confident of 3 Mt by 2031 official-comms · CU:S21 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V12 |
| 1,700,400 | t maximum capacity, best case if all estimated capacity came online immediately “a maximum capacity of 1,700,400” | PwC 2024 edition (16 Oct 2024) | PwC projects copper will fall short of 2031 target secondary · CU:S25 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1.8 | Mt at full capacity from known and committed projects (PwC 4th edition, Dec 2025) “PwC estimates known and committed projects could support about 1.8 million tonnes at full capacity.” | reported 30 Sep 2026 | Zambia copper boom draws $5bn secondary · CU:S26 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| aspirational | Control Risks view of the 3 Mt target “widely viewed as aspirational rather than achievable” | 8 May 2026 | Stronger action needed (Control Risks) secondary · CU:S27 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 22.4 | % a year needed from 2025 to reach 3 Mt in 2031 | 25 Aug 2026 | Three million tonnes, but not yet on track secondary · CU:S18 | D · Calculated from cited inputs | No independent recheck logged |
| 738,228 / 980,165 / 1,300,056 | t Finance Ministry annual targets for 2023 / 2024 / 2025 (actuals 728,558 / 824,425 / 890,346) | 25 Aug 2026 | Three million tonnes, but not yet on track secondary · CU:S18 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1 million; 1.2 million | t Finance Ministry expectation: this year and 2027 | 2 Sep 2026 | Copper concentrate export duty returns secondary · CU:S24 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| three million tonnes | President's restatement at the Mingomba ground-breaking “We shall keep pushing until we realise the three million tonnes” | 29 Apr 2026 | Hichilema confident of 3 Mt as KoBold breaks ground secondary · CU:S23 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- The 3 Mt date moved: 'next decade' (2022), 2032 (8NDP, CSIS), 2031 (strategy, Aug 2024). The 1 Mt interim target moved: 2025-2026 (Apr 2024), 2027 (Jul 2024), 2025 missed at 890,346 t.
- PwC 1.8 vs the 1.79 Mt noted earlier in the brief: the exact figure was not found; only the secondary 'about 1.8 million' was.
- Two breakdowns of the 3 Mt differ (existing 1.5 vs 1.4 Mt; greenfield 1.25 vs 1.2 Mt).
- '890,346 tons produced against a target of 1,000,000' (Diggers 27 May 2026): the 2025 interim target was missed by 109,654 t.
Project pipeline
verification caveatKansanshi S3 commercial since 1 Dec 2025 (company release, re-opened); Lumwana Super Pit first copper end-Q1 2028; Mingomba early 2030s; Kitumba and Luanshya status unknown
23 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- Of the four projects the speech names, Kansanshi S3 is commissioned; Lumwana's first copper is targeted for 2028, Mingomba is early 2030s, and Kitumba's start is unconfirmed.
- What would make it wrong
- Company statements on Kitumba and Luanshya.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 billion | US$ announced Super Pit expansion budget; not remaining spending “$2 billion Super Pit Expansion Project” | 10 Jul 2025 | Lumwana Expansion In Full Swing As Barrick Builds Tier One Copper Mine primary · CD:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: CD01 |
| 1 Dec 2025 | Kansanshi S3 declared in commercial production (RAMP) “Kansanshi S3 Expansion project declared commercial production on December 1, 2025.” | 28 Jul 2026 | FQM Q2 2026 results primary · CU:S28 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V13 |
| 1.25 bn | US$ capex, Kansanshi S3 | Feb 2026 | Zambia's Mining Sector Charts Its Course to 2031 official-comms · CU:S4 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 181 | kt Kansanshi 2025 preliminary | 2025 | FQM 2025 prelim and 2026-28 guidance primary · CU:S28b | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 230-260 | kt Kansanshi guidance for 2028, with S3 running | 15 Jan 2026 | FQM 2025 prelim and 2026-28 guidance primary · CU:S28b | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 150,871 | t Lumwana 2025 estimate, the base the Super Pit builds on | 2025e | Zambia country profile secondary · CU:S31 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 240,000 | t a year once the Super Pit runs; first production 2028 (Ministry) | 22 Jan 2025 | Media statement, performance of mining sector 2024 primary · CU:S1 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 300 | kt a year, about, at Mingomba eventually; first output 'early 2030s' | 30 Sep 2026 | Zambia copper boom draws $5bn secondary · CU:S26 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 50 | kt a year, about, of finished copper at Kitumba; production targeted for Sep 2026, start not confirmed | 18 Apr 2025 | Sinomine targets 2026 production at Kitumba secondary · CU:S33 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| end of Q1 2028 | first copper targeted at Lumwana Super Pit (RAMP); capex about US$2bn; about 240 kt/y “targeted for the end of Q1 2028” | 10 Aug 2026 | Barrick Q2 2026 results primary · CU:S29 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 2.3 | US$ bn Mingomba (KoBold, greenfield); more than 300 kt/y eventually | 30 Apr - 5 May 2026 | KoBold starts work (Bloomberg) secondary · CU:S32 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 560 | US$ m Kitumba (Sinomine, greenfield, Mumbwa); about 50 kt/y; target 'start copper production in September 2026' | 18 Apr 2025 | Sinomine targets 2026 production at Kitumba secondary · CU:S33 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 17,192.20 to 80,215.33 | t KCM output 2024 to 2025 (restart) | 2025 | Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t secondary · CU:S2 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 80,215.33 | t KCM 2025, after the restart | 2025 | Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t secondary · CU:S2 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 300 | kt a year targeted at KCM by 2031 | 7 Sep 2026 | Konkola Deep drives toward 300,000 t secondary · CU:S35 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 200 | kt targeted at KCM for 2028 | 5 May 2026 | Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani secondary · CU:S34 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 65 | kt Mopani 2024 estimate | 2024 | Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani secondary · CU:S34 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 180 | kt targeted at Mopani for 2028 | 5 May 2026 | Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani secondary · CU:S34 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 100 | kt a year targeted at Luanshya by 2030; upper mine to resume Aug 2026 (not confirmed), lower mine 2029 | 23 Apr 2026 | Luanshya restart secondary · CU:S40 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 65 | kt Mopani 2024 estimate; targets 110 kt (2026), 180 kt (2028) | 2024 | Zambia's Copper Renaissance: KCM and Mopani secondary · CU:S34 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 40,000 | t/y concentrate target for Lubambe 'from 2029 onwards' (restart) | 16 Sep 2025 | Lubambe targets 40,000 t secondary · CU:S39 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 710 | US$ m Luanshya / 28 Shaft (CLM, restart); about 100 kt/y by 2030; upper mine to resume Aug 2026, lower mine 2029 | 23 Apr 2026 | Luanshya restart secondary · CU:S40 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 20 | US$ m initial investment, Kalengwa (Euro Africa/Moxico); ground-broken Nov 2024; no tonnage | 19 Nov 2024 | Kalengwa secondary · CU:S41 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- Mingomba: the Zambia Monitor 29 Apr 2026 headline calls it a 'US$300 million' project vs >US$2.3bn elsewhere (probably confused with 300 kt/y).
- KCM and Mopani targets conflict across sources (see records); the Mopani 226 kt figure is concentrate, not contained copper.
- Barrick's 190-220 kt guidance covers all its copper operations, not Lumwana alone.
- Lumwana's 240 kt/y is described elsewhere as a life-of-mine average (snippet only).
Mining electricity use
verification caveatMining 9,785.1 GWh (2025) vs 4,649.9 GWh (2024), 63% of national use; President: 'not less than 8,000 MW' for 3 Mt
7 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- The 8,000 MW is a presidential statement with no method; installed capacity today is 4,108 MW.
- What would make it wrong
- ERB clarifying the 2024-25 reclassification.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9,785.1 | GWh large-scale mining electricity use (4,649.9 GWh in 2024) “the large-scale Mining sector which grew from 4,649.9GWh to 9,785.1GWh” | 2025 | Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · CU:S42 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 5,979.71 | GWh 'Mines (Total)' (6,611.51 GWh in 2022; about 47% of national use) | 2021 | Status Quo of the Energy System secondary · CU:S44 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 8,000 | MW 'not less than' to reach 3 Mt (President at the Itimpi II ceremony) “Reaching three million tonnes will consume not less than 8,000 MW of power” | 30 Apr 2026 | Hichilema commissions CEC's solar plant secondary · CU:S45 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V25 |
| 4,107.86 | MW installed capacity (3,885.86 MW in 2024) | 2025 | Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · CU:S42 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 8.7 / 5.6 / 11.0 | MWh per tonne: all-mining kWh divided by national copper tonnes (includes smelting and non-copper mining) | 2022 / 2024 / 2025 | Energy Sector Report 2025 derived · CU:S42 | D · Calculated from cited inputs | No independent recheck logged |
| 2,000 | MW 'at least' of additional generation needed | 10 Aug 2026 | Zambia Is Mining More Copper secondary · CU:S30 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10 GW | new generation and nearly $12 billion by 2030 (Copperbelt Energy) | 7 Sep 2026 | Konkola Deep drives toward 300,000 t secondary · CU:S35 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- DATA FLAG (arithmetic): peak demand FELL (2,299 to 2,204 MW) while ERB consumption rose 48% and generation rose 7.3%. ERB's net supply (generation + imports - ZESCO exports = 15,267 GWh) is below its reported 2025 consumption (15,470.6 GWh) before losses (6.4% transmission, 11.8% distribution). 2024 net supply (~13,480 GWh) is ~3,000 GWh above reported consumption (10,436 GWh). The 2024-25 jump may partly reflect reclassification or reporting, not only mining growth: treat the y/y mining growth as low confidence.
- Itimpi II ceremony date: Zambia Monitor says 'on Tuesday' (28 Apr); Ecofin says Thursday 30 Apr. Plant size 126 MW vs 136 MW (136 is probably right).
- The 8,000 MW is a presidential statement with no method; the energy-intensity per tonne from a credible source was not found (the MWh/t above is my division, mixing smelting and non-copper mining).
Copper price
documented baselineCopper US$14,474/t (Sep 2026), US$9,947/t average 2025
3 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- n/a (context).
- What would make it wrong
- n/a.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14,474 | US$/t LME grade A settlement, monthly | Sep 2026 | Pink Sheet monthly data; Oct 2026 Pink Sheet PDF primary · CU:S48 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V24 |
| 9,947 | US$/t annual average | 2025 | Pink Sheet annual data primary · CU:S47 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 14,326 | US$/t | Aug 2026 | Pink Sheet monthly data; Oct 2026 Pink Sheet PDF primary · CU:S48 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V24 |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- IndexMundi repeats the World Bank values: the same data, not independent.
- USGS reports a COMEX average of a record US$4.80 per pound in 2025: a different basis (US$/lb COMEX); do not compare directly.
Specific claims: revitalised mines, geological mapping, the Minerals Regulation Commission
verification caveatKCM 17,192 to 80,215 t (2024 to 2025); aerial survey 73% (May 2026); Minerals Regulation Commission licensing since Jun 2026
11 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- 28 Shaft and Kalengwa are not verified as producing; no formal 'fully operational' declaration found.
- What would make it wrong
- Ministry output figures for 28 Shaft and Kalengwa.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17,192.20 to 80,215.33 | t KCM output 2024 to 2025 (+366.58%) “KCM production surged by 366.58 percent” | 2025 | Zambia copper +8% to 890,345.79 t secondary · CU:S2 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 40.27 | % Mopani 2025 output growth (no tonnage); Q1 2026 +4.39%; H1 2026 DECLINED (named among decliners) | 2025 / H1 2026 | Copper production edges up in H1 2026 secondary · CU:S14 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| not producing | 28 Shaft (Luanshya): upper mine scheduled to resume in Aug 2026, lower mine (28 Shaft) 2029 | 23 Apr 2026 | Luanshya restart secondary · CU:S40 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| closed for 46 years | Kalengwa ground-broken Nov 2024; $20m initial; no output found | 19 Nov 2024 | Kalengwa secondary · CU:S41 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 73 | % of the aerial geophysical survey complete (completion expected August 2026) | 11 May 2026 | Q1 2026 copper production, survey, MRC (Kabuswe briefing) secondary · CU:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 42.6 | % survey coverage | 15 Oct 2025 | Aerial survey, Xcalibur secondary · CU:S50 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 70 | % by 31 Dec 2025 was projected in Mar 2025 and was missed | 29 Mar 2025 | Zambia targets 70% by 2025 secondary · CU:S53 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| Act No. 14 of 2024 | Minerals Regulation Commission Act; commencement orders signed 3 Jun 2025, published 13 Jun 2025, repealing the 2015 Mines Act | Jun 2025 | Zambia mining sector overhaul (Bowmans) secondary · CU:S54 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| end of the first quarter of 2025 | date the Ministry said the Commission would be 'fully operational' “before end of the first quarter of 2025, the Commission will be fully operational” | 22 Jan 2025 | Media statement, performance of mining sector 2024 primary · CU:S1 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 22 / 3 / 4 / 15 | large-scale applications: received / approved / deferred / rejected (small-scale 129 / 3 / 62 / 64) | 17 Jun 2026 | MRC results of 1st licensing committee primary · CU:S56 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| no licences | issued in Q1 2026 because the MRC Board had not been constituted; the inaugural board was appointed 6 May 2026 | 13 May 2026 | Q1 2026 copper production, survey, MRC (Kabuswe briefing) secondary · CU:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- Geological survey progress: 73% (11 May 2026, Ministry) vs a snippet citing 60% in May 2026 (Mining Weekly, blocked, unverified). Status after May 2026 not found.
- A Constitutional Court petition challenging the MRC Act was pending (11 Dec 2025, CU:S55).
- The Ministry also quoted '58 percent of the country geologically mapped' in Mar 2025, a different measure from the aerial survey.
What the target implies
22.4%growth a year, for 6 years
From 890,346 (2025) to 3 million by the end of 2031: 3.4x the baseline.
- Best sustained pace on record
- 10.3% a year (2004-2009, 5-year window)
- Required ÷ best
- 2.2x beyond precedentproposed
- Without the 25% base rule
- best 15.4% (1999-2004), ratio 1.5x stretchproposed
The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.
Note on the baseline: base is the Ministry's 2025 figure; USGS series ends earlier and counts differently
Copy this page's address to share the assumed year and baseline choice.
Capital and delivery
Band, and what would change it
Proposed band at end-2031:beyond precedentproposedWithout the 25% rule:stretchproposed
A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.
| Target | end-2028 | end-2029 | end-2030 | end-2031 | end-2032 | end-2033 | end-2034 | end-2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compared with one set of USGS yearbooksbeyond precedent to 2031 · stretch from 2032 | 4.8x beyond precedent | 3.4x beyond precedent | 2.7x beyond precedent | 2.2x beyond precedent | 1.8x stretch | 1.6x stretch | 1.4x stretch | 1.2x stretch |
| Compared with another set of USGS yearbooksbeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 2033 | 5.9x beyond precedent | 4.2x beyond precedent | 3.2x beyond precedent | 2.6x beyond precedent | 2.2x beyond precedent | 1.9x stretch | 1.7x stretch | 1.5x stretch |
on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.
- Confidence in the baseline
- 2025: medium-high (one government source, many repeats; USGS differs). Pre-2013 history: low-medium (USGS only). Revision explanation: none.
- What would change it
- The Ministry's own 2025 statement or ZamStats giving a different total.
Audit findings for this target
Copper at 890,346 t needs 22.4% a year to reach 3 Mt by 2031, against a best past 5-year pace of 8-10%. Provisional reading · confidence: medium
Evidence: Ministry 2025 output (two outlets re-opened); the pace is my arithmetic on USGS series with mixed vintages. Kill criterion: A reconciled national series showing a faster past pace, or a 2031 date that moves. Competing explanation: Much of the 3 Mt may come from capacity that is already financed, which past paces would not capture.
These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.