10,000 MW of generation capacity
Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓
- Baseline
- (2025)
- Target
- by end-2031, assumed
- Growth needed
- a year
- Best on record
- a year
- Needed ÷ best
- beyond precedentproposed
Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.
To compare electricity figures on the same basis (E1–E4), we would need to reconcile regulator and Ministry dates, definitions and plant coverage. Assessing dependable supply would also need evidence beyond installed capacity. Inspect the evidence ↓
The record
Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.
- Recorded
- Required path
- Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
- Target
Source: ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 (ERB). Source note: ERB Energy Sector Reports 2015-2025 (2023: 3,811.3 or 3,812.06 or 3,811.37 by report). Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.
Data table (12 points)
| Period | MW |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 2,396 |
| 2015 | 2,411 |
| 2016 | 2,826.91 |
| 2017 | 2,896.91 |
| 2018 | 2,898.23 |
| 2019 | 2,981.31 |
| 2020 | 3,011.23 |
| 2021 | 3,318.43 |
| 2022 | 3,777.3 |
| 2023 | 3,811.3 |
| 2024 | 3,885.86 |
| 2025 | 4,107.86 |
Installed is not available
Hydro was of installed capacity on the Ministry of Energy's November 2025 slide (of 3,877 MW; another Ministry-attributed mix differs, see the capacity conflicts), so a megawatt on paper needs water behind it. Kariba is the largest store. Step through the Zambezi River Authority's readings to see the lake drain in the drought and refill.
- Upper dashed line: full supply level
- Lower solid line: minimum operating level
- Usable water: 38.19%
- Dead storage: below the turbine intakes
2D cross-section.
Schematic, not a survey: a straight valley, not Kariba's real shape. The water shows the share of usable volume, between the minimum operating level and the full supply level; the valley widens as it rises, so a small share still shows some height. Drag to turn the 3D view, or use the 2D cross-section.
The claim
electricity generation capacity to 10,000 megawatts
Related claims in the speech
- reportedIn the first term clean thermal and solar generation were expanded, and household and institutional solar increased generation. (p. 17)
- assertionNational energy sufficiency and surplus cannot be achieved by Government investment alone. (p. 17)
- targetThe national transmission network will be upgraded and expanded, linked to regional power pools, with public-private participation in transmission and distribution. (p. 17)
Baseline audit
National installed generation capacity
reconciliation pendingInstalled capacity 4,107.86 MW at end-2025 (ERB, re-opened); Ministry 4,576 MW (Sep 2026) and 4,722 MW (7 Oct Energy Forum address); that address's '3,777 MW in 2024' is ERB's 2022 figure
- Against the speech
- The 9 Oct speech states no MW total; the 4,722 MW figure was said on 7 Oct at the Energy Forum.
- Where it comes from
- ERB (regulator) vs Ministry/presidential statements with no primary document
- What would make it wrong
- A primary Ministry document reconciling 4,576/4,722 MW to ERB.
All 9 records for E1
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,107.86 | MW installed (grid 4,101.60 + off-grid 6.26) “increased to 4,107.86MW in 2025, up from 3,885.86 MW in 2024” | 31 Dec 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 3,885.86 | MW installed | 2024 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 3,871.37 | MW installed (MoE text says 3,871.32) | 2024 | MoE Energy Sector primary · EC:S12 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 3,877 | MW installed | 27 Nov 2025 | MoE Zim-Zam Summit slides official-comms · EC:S13 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 79.6 | % of installed capacity that is hydro (of 3,877 MW) | 27 Nov 2025 | MoE Zim-Zam Summit slides official-comms · EC:S13 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 3,808 | MW currently “currently stands at 3,808 MW” | 10 Feb 2026 | National Assembly record official-comms · EC:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 4,576 | MW “4,576 MW, up from 3,100 MW in 2021” | reported Aug-Sep 2026 | Green Building Africa secondary · EC:S22 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 4,722.3 | MW currently (from 3,777 MW in 2024) | 7 Oct 2026 | Solwezi Today secondary · EC:S18 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 3,777.3 | MW installed (this is ERB's 2022 total) | 2022 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2022 primary · EC:S5 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions (6), reported, never averaged
- 2025 additions per ERB: Chisamba 100, Mailo 25, UCF coal 85, KGL mini-hydro 12 = 222 MW.
- The 7 Oct Energy Forum address's 2024 base of 3,777 MW is ERB's 2022 figure; ERB, MoE and the Ministry's Nov 2025 slide give 3,871-3,886 MW for 2024. On the 3,777 base the 2024-to-Oct-2026 gain is 945 MW; on ERB's 3,885.86 it is 837 MW.
- The 10 Feb 2026 Hansard figures do not add up: 3,168 + 712 = 3,880 MW, not 3,808 MW; a transposition is possible but unverified.
- Between the 4,576 and 4,722.3 figures the total rises 146 MW while solar rises 187 MW (841 to 1,027.5): non-solar capacity falls about 40 MW, so the bases or dates differ.
- S23 (Freight News) gives a source mix of hydro 84, coal 9, HFO 5, solar 3 percent for the 4,576 MW, which cannot fit 841 MW of solar (18% of 4,576).
- ERB moved the 110 MW Ndola HFO plant to diesel in 2024, while MoE keeps HFO at 110 MW.
Solar capacity and the 1,000 MW target
reconciliation pendingSolar 308 MW grid-tied at end-2025 (ERB, re-opened); 841 MW (end-Jul 2026, Ministry via press); 1,027 MW (7-8 Oct 2026, MoE page, re-opened)
10 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- The 1,000 MW target was first set for end-2025; the page gives no plant breakdown.
- What would make it wrong
- An itemised plant list or an ERB/ZESCO update.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 308.00 | MW grid-tied solar (plus 0.12 off-grid) “installed renewable energy capacity increased from 182MW in 2024 to 348MW in 2025” | Dec 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 183.00 | MW solar | 2024 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 841 | MW solar “reached approximately 841 MW by the end of July 2026” | end-Jul 2026 | pv magazine secondary · EC:S21 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1,027.5 | MW solar (21.7% of 4,722.3 MW) “surged from 178MW in 2024 to 1,027.5MW” | 7 Oct 2026 | Solwezi Today secondary · EC:S18 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1,027 | MW solar, from 178MW (no year given for the 178MW baseline); no breakdown by plant “solar capacity had risen from 178MW to 1,027MW, exceeding the 1,000MW target.” | published 8 Oct 2026 | Zambia hits 1,000MW solar target official-comms · TR:S10 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | Logged source recheck: V17 |
| 136 | MW Itimpi II brought online | 2 May 2026 | Enerdata (Itimpi II) secondary · EC:S31 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 50 | MW Mansa (Mabumba) commissioned | 24 Apr 2026 | SolarQuarter (Mansa) secondary · EC:S29 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 100 | MW Chisamba II commissioned | 21-22 Jul 2026 | ITWeb secondary · EC:S28 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 100 | MWac Maamba/Nava feeding the grid, still in commissioning | from 24 Sep 2026 | Ecofin Agency secondary · EC:S26 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 89.13 | MW solar | 2020 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2021 primary · EC:S6 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- ARITH: pv magazine's 584 MW omits Riverside, Bangweulu and Ngonye (122 MW per ERB); adding them leaves a gap of about 105 MW to 841, not 227 MW. 1,027.5 less 841 less Maamba 100 leaves about 86 MW unexplained.
- ERB end-2025 grid solar was 308 MW; 841 MW by end-July needs about 533 MW added in 7 months; the plants the agent could verify add about 286 MW.
- An explicit statement moving the deadline from end-2025 to end-2026 was not found. In Aug 2025 the target was 'additional' 1,000 MW; in 2026 it is a total of 1,000 MW: different bases.
- AFSIA counts 1.15 GW operational (28 Jul) and 1.33 GW (25 Sep) per press; not opened.
- The ~882 MW (1 Oct) figure mentioned in the brief was not found.
Generation, demand, availability and load-shedding
documented baseline2025 average generation 1,488.93 MW vs average demand 2,217.52 MW; peak demand 2,204 MW; load-shedding up to 16 h a day (a utility's account)
9 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- A '24-hour supply' projection (Feb 2026) has no later data behind it.
- What would make it wrong
- ERB or ZESCO 2026 load-shedding data.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,488.93 | MW average generation (average demand 2,217.52 MW; deficit 728.59 MW) “average generation was 1,488.93MW. The average demand was 2,217.52MW” | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 2,217.52 | MW average demand | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 2,204 | MW peak national system demand “Peak national system demand was 2,204MW in 2025 compared to 2,299MW” | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 1,635 | MW available domestic | 10 Feb 2026 | National Assembly record official-comms · EC:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 1,850 | MW average generation (590 MW deficit; 2,400 MW peak demand) | Nov 2025 | MoE Zim-Zam Summit slides official-comms · EC:S13 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 14,560.23 | GWh generation sent out | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 20 | hours per day, up to, of load-shedding | Mar-Dec 2024 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 16 | hours per day, up to, of load-shedding | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
| 2,119.70 | GWh ZESCO imports (exports 1,690.98) | 2025 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2025 primary · EC:S1 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V14 |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- 1,635 MW (the Minister's statement) vs 1,900 MW (the same Minister in Q&A) vs ERB's 1,489 MW average for 2025.
- Peak demand fell in 2025 (2,204 vs 2,299 MW) while ERB reports consumption up 48%: see K4.
The 10,000 MW target: year, origin and pipeline
verification caveat10,000 MW: year none (speech), 2030 (MoE Nov 2025, Hansard Feb 2026), 2031 (a VP-speech report, government projection of 10,182 MW)
11 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- From 4,108 MW (ERB) the gap is about +5,900 MW; no pipeline project beyond Maamba II, Gouli and Batoka is dated.
- What would make it wrong
- The origin document for 10,000 MW stating a year.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 | MW generation capacity, no year stated “To expand electricity-generation capacity to 10,000 megawatts” | 9 Oct 2026 | President's speech official-comms · EC:S16 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10,013 | MW by 2030 (23,193 MW by 2050; peak demand 5,422 MW by 2030) | 27 Nov 2025 | MoE Zim-Zam Summit slides official-comms · EC:S13 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10 GW | production target by 2030 “our target is to reach 10 GW production by 2030” | 10 Feb 2026 | National Assembly record official-comms · EC:S15 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10 GW | by 2030, from 3.7 GW in 2023 | 27 Aug 2025 | Zambia Monitor (Chikote, 10 GW) secondary · EC:S41 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10,000 | MW 'absolute minimum of reliable power' by 2031 | 7 Oct 2026 | Streamlinefeed secondary · EC:S19 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 10,182 | MW total projected for 2031 (solar 2,733, hydro 4,279, thermal 2,555) | 28 Sep 2026 | Ecofin Agency secondary · EC:S26 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 2,400 | MW Batoka Gorge (2 x 1,200); cost $4.2bn; no start or commissioning date | 29 Dec 2025 | Ecofin (Batoka) secondary · EC:S47 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 2x150 | MW Maamba Phase II, 'more than 65% complete' | Mar 2026 | Energy News Network (Maamba II) secondary · EC:S49 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 135 | MW Gouli (Livingstone) phase 1 technical commissioning Oct 2026; phase 2 about mid-2027 | Sep 2026 | Green Building Africa secondary · EC:S22 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 750 | MW Kafue Gorge Lower (5 x 150), complete | commissioned 13 May 2023 | ConstructAfrica (KGL) secondary · EC:S51 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
| 6,342 / 7,940 / 9,971 | MW total installed for 2026 / 2030 / 2040 (IRP D5.3, restricted) | 30 Jun 2022 | IRP D5.3 Generation report (restricted) primary · EC:S45 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- The year attached to 10,000 MW varies: none (the speech), 2030 (Hansard Feb 2026, MoE Nov 2025, Chikote Aug 2025), 2031 (a VP-speech report framing it as a minimum requirement, and the government's 2031 projection of 10,182 MW). The speech states no year.
- The 8NDP (Aug 2022) target was 4,457 MW by 2026, not 10,000 MW; the origin document and date of the 10,000 MW figure were not found. The earliest 10,000 MW references opened are Aug 2025 and Nov 2025.
- Mission 300 compact (described in secondary sources as signed Jan 2025) returned 404; ZARENA brief cites '10,000 MW installed capacity by 2030'.
El Nino outlook and the 2023/24 drought calibration
documented baselineNOAA CPC 8 Oct 2026: El Nino Advisory, Nino-3.4 +2.1C, strong-to-very-strong likely through JFM 2027; Kariba 38.19% usable (14.30% a year ago)
13 records, against the speech and kill criterion
- Against the speech
- Holds. The Met Department forecast is below-normal rain for most of Zambia; above-normal rain is forecast only for the northern provinces, so flooding is regional.
- What would make it wrong
- NOAA's 12 Nov update.
| Value | What it is | As of | Source | Tag | Re-opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +2.1 | deg C Nino-3.4; El Nino Advisory in force “strong-to-very strong El Nino likely through January-March 2027” | 8 Oct 2026 | NOAA CPC ENSO discussion primary · EC:S53 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V15 |
| near-100 | % likelihood of El Nino persisting through Feb 2027 “near-100 per cent likelihood” | 8 Oct 2026 | WMO primary · EC:S54 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 100 | % El Nino probability SON to FMA 2027 | 21 Sep 2026 | IRI ENSO forecast primary · EC:S56 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| Below-Normal | rainfall likely over much of Zambia; prolonged dry spells in DJF in the southern half “Below-Normal rainfall is likely over much of Zambia” | 11 Sep 2026 | ZMD 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast primary · EC:S58 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 38.19 | % usable storage, Kariba (480.85 m) | 4 Oct 2026 | ZRA Kariba reservoir data primary · EC:S59 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V16 |
| 48.55 | % usable storage, Kariba (482.21 m), the 2026 peak | 27 Jun 2026 | ZRA Kariba reservoir data primary · EC:S59 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 14.30 | % usable storage, Kariba (477.56 m), the same date a year earlier | 4 Oct 2025 | ZRA Kariba reservoir data primary · EC:S59 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V16 |
| 6.45 | % usable storage, Kariba (476.43 m), the same date two years earlier | 4 Oct 2024 | ZRA Kariba reservoir data primary · EC:S59 | V · Primary source opened | Logged source recheck: V16 |
| 19,372.92 to 13,324.38 | GWh generation, 2023 to 2024: -31.2%, the largest decline in 10 years | 2023/24 drought | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 31.2 | % fall in national generation sent out, 2023 to 2024 | 2023/24 drought | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 41.4 | % fall in Kariba North Bank generation, 2023 to 2024 | 2023/24 drought | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 5.4 to 4.0 | % GDP growth, 2023 to 2024 (ERB's wording); World Bank now has 5.37 to 3.82 | 2024 | ERB Energy Sector Report 2024 primary · EC:S3 | V · Primary source opened | No independent recheck logged |
| 3,263 to 1,510 | kt maize, USDA via IndexMundi (-53.7%) | 2023/24 | IndexMundi (USDA data), Zambia maize secondary · EC:S64 | L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened | No independent recheck logged |
Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:
- NOAA CPC's +2.1C and its +2.5C 'historic' threshold use a relative index (RONI); WMO's +3.7C is a seasonal forecast. They are not directly comparable.
- SARCOF-33 (25-28 Aug 2026) favoured below-normal for southern Zambia in OND and wetter in the extreme north; the Met Department's national outlook is broader. The 'flooding' half of the speech's claim is regionally narrow.
- Kariba a year and two years earlier: the research agent read 14.37% (477.57 m) and 6.52% (476.44 m) from the ZRA page; my re-opening (V16) read 14.30% (477.56 m) and 6.45% (476.43 m). The re-opened figures are the records.
What the target implies
Note: Electricity: the one exception on record is solar, from about 178 MW to a claimed 1,027 MW in about two years (unaudited), which is outside the ERB totals' own history.
16.0%growth a year, for 6 years
From 4,108 (2025) to 10,000 by the end of 2031: 2.4x the baseline.
- Best sustained pace on record
- 6.4% a year (2020-2025, 5-year window)
- Required ÷ best
- 2.5x beyond precedentproposed
- Without the 25% base rule
- best 6.4% (2020-2025), ratio 2.5x beyond precedentproposed
The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.
Note on the baseline: base is ERB end-2025; Ministry's 4,722 MW (Oct 2026) would lower the required pace but is unreconciled
Copy this page's address to share the assumed year and baseline choice.
Capital and delivery
Band, and what would change it
A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.
| Target | end-2028 | end-2029 | end-2030 | end-2031 | end-2032 | end-2033 | end-2034 | end-2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| From the regulator's end-2025 figurebeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 2033 | 5.4x beyond precedent | 3.9x beyond precedent | 3.0x beyond precedent | 2.5x beyond precedent | 2.1x beyond precedent | 1.8x stretch | 1.6x stretch | 1.5x stretch |
- Confidence in the baseline
- High for ERB 2014-2025 totals. Low for the 2026 figures: no primary document or breakdown exists.
- What would change it
- A primary Ministry document reconciling 4,576/4,722 MW to ERB.
Audit findings for this target
The 1,027 MW solar and 4,722 MW capacity figures are from the 7 Oct Energy Forum address, not the 9 Oct Parliament speech, and remain unreconciled with the regulator's earlier figures. Provisional reading · confidence: high that they were said and where; low on whether they are right
Evidence: Speech text has no such figures (checked); ERB: 308 MW solar and 4,107.86 MW total at end-2025. Kill criterion: A primary Ministry document reconciling the figures to ERB. Competing explanation: ERB may be reporting grid-tied, commissioned plant while the Ministry counts plant under commissioning.
'3,777 MW in 2024', said in the 7 Oct Energy Forum address (not the 9 Oct speech), is ERB's 2022 total, not its 2024 total (3,885.86 MW). Provisional reading · confidence: high
Evidence: ERB 2022 report 3,777.3 MW; ERB 2024 3,885.86 MW; the 9 Oct speech text has no MW figure except the 10,000 MW target (checked). Kill criterion: An ERB restatement of 2024 to 3,777 MW. Competing explanation: The Ministry may use a different basis (firm vs installed capacity).
These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.