2031 Metrics · target 6 of 8 · code 1

1 million tonnes of wheat

Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓

Baseline: (2024)
Target: by end-2031, assumed
Growth needed: a year
Best on record: a year
Needed ÷ best: stretchproposed

Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.

To firm up the wheat baseline (C4), we would need to confirm the press-reported forecast and irrigated share against official evidence. Historical observations and forecasts remain separate scenarios. Inspect the evidence ↓

The record

Wheat production by harvest year (tonnes)

Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.

Recorded
Required path
Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
Target

Source: Wheat production CSV (OWID). Source note: OWID/FAOSTAT-derived; yield 7.09 t/ha in 2024. Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.

Data table (15 points)

Period	tonnes
2010	172,256
2011	237,332
2012	253,522
2013	273,584
2014	201,504
2015	214,230
2016	159,533
2017	193,713
2018	114,463
2019	151,850
2020	191,620
2021	205,882
2022	234,925
2023	277,492
2024	198,886

The claim

1 million tonnes of wheat

President Hichilema, opening of the 14th National Assembly, 9 October 2026, p. 9, 39. No target year is given.

Baseline audit

Wheat production

verification caveat

Wheat: 129,524 t (2024/25 MoA forecast); 81,822 t (2025/26, press); record 277,492 t (2023, FAOSTAT-derived)

Against the speech: 1 Mt is about 3.6x the record.
Where it comes from: MoA statement (primary) for 2024/25; 2025/26 is secondary press on a crop not yet harvested
What would make it wrong: The ZamStats national wheat figure and the irrigated share.

All 8 records for C4

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
81,822	t, 2025/26 (a forecast of the crop still to be harvested) “81,822 MT of wheat”	26 May 2026	National Food Balance article secondary · CR:S4	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
129,523.51	t, 2024/25 forecast; area 17,822.28 ha; down from 198,886 t on 28,052 ha “production will stand at 129,523.51 metric tonnes in the current season”	2024/25	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
17,822.28	ha wheat area, 2024/25 forecast	2024/25	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
198,886	t wheat, 2023/24 (the 2024 harvest the wheat page's pace starts from)	2023/24	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
28,052	ha wheat area, 2023/24	2023/24	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
358,318	t National Food Balance deficit, 2026/27 marketing season (327,938 t for 2025/26)	26 May 2026 / 22 May 2025	National Food Balance article secondary · CR:S4	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
100,000	t wheat imports approved by Cabinet after a 2015 ban	18 Mar 2024	Cabinet allows wheat imports secondary · CR:S41	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
25,000 to 50,000	t/y: Zambeef Mpongwe wheat milling capacity doubling (flour tonnes; US$12m)	11 Oct 2024	Zambeef Mpongwe wheat mill secondary · CR:S43	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions (4), reported, never averaged

2024/25 wheat: 129,524 t (MoA forecast) vs 250 kt (USDA/IndexMundi MY2024); the USDA series is flat and not independent.
PDU labels 114,000 t as 2019, whereas OWID has it at 2018 (114,463).
Target year for 1 Mt: 2031 (PDU S22) vs 2027 (PDU 'Zambia's wheat revolution').
An opposition commentary says 250,000 t from 35,000 ha (about 7.1 t/ha): opinion, conflicting with MoA 2024/25.

What the target implies

Baseline From the 2024 harvest From the 2025/26 forecast (press)

26.0%growth a year, for 7 years

From 198,886 (2024) to 1 million by the end of 2031: 5.0x the baseline.

Best sustained pace on record: 20.4% a year (2006-2011, 5-year window)
Required ÷ best: 1.3x stretchproposed
Without the 25% base rule: best 20.4% (2006-2011), ratio 1.3x stretchproposed

Assumed target year2031

The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.

Note on the baseline: base is the 2024 value; the 2025/26 forecast is 81,822 t (secondary); no official national baseline

Copy this page's address to share the assumed year and baseline choice.

Capital and delivery

Capital and delivery · draft discussion question

What harvested area and yield are feasible with the available water and energy?

Required harvested hectares are not automatically new land. Check existing irrigated capacity, cropping intensity and mill demand.

Editorial question based on the cited audit items; the answer still needs verification. No cost verdict or financing commitment is established.

Evidence and limits

Audit records: C4, C2. Sources: Zambia Monitor (CR:S4); MoA / Parliament (CR:S10); MillingMEA (CR:S41); MillingMEA (CR:S43).

Confidence in the underlying record: C4: Medium-low. The MoA series is solid to 2024/25, but 2025/26 is a forecast and the requirements are implied. C2: Low-medium. The target is well documented; the baseline is not.

What would change the discussion: The ZamStats national wheat figure and the irrigated share.

Competing explanation: better use of existing assets, shared infrastructure or a different product mix could change the required expansion; demand, water or commissioning constraints could limit its return.

Explore the project evidence and its limits →

Band, and what would change it

Proposed band at end-2031:stretchproposedWithout the 25% rule:stretchproposed

A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.

Proposed band for each target by assumed target year: required growth divided by the best pace on record.
Target	end-2028	end-2029	end-2030	end-2031	end-2032	end-2033	end-2034	end-2035
From the 2024 harvestbeyond precedent to 2028 · stretch 2029-2032 · on pace from 2033	2.4x beyond precedent	1.9x stretch	1.5x stretch	1.3x stretch	1.1x stretch	1.0x on pace	0.9x on pace	0.8x on pace
From the 2025/26 forecast (press)beyond precedent to 2033 · stretch from 2034	12.3x beyond precedent	6.4x beyond precedent	4.3x beyond precedent	3.2x beyond precedent	2.5x beyond precedent	2.1x beyond precedent	1.8x stretch	1.6x stretch

on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.

All targets on the assumption map →

Confidence in the baseline: Medium-low. The MoA series is solid to 2024/25, but 2025/26 is a forecast and the requirements are implied.
What would change it: The ZamStats national wheat figure and the irrigated share.

These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.