2031 Metrics · target 5 of 8 · code 3

3 million tonnes of soya beans

Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓

Baseline: (2023)
Target: by end-2031, assumed
Growth needed: a year
Best on record: a year
Needed ÷ best: on paceproposed

Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.

To describe current soya production (C3), we would need to obtain the latest official harvest figure and reconcile reporting years. The scenarios here use older record and drought harvests. Inspect the evidence ↓

The record

Soya bean production by harvest year (tonnes)

Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.

Recorded
Required path
Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
Target

Source: Soybean production CSV (OWID). Source note: OWID/FAOSTAT-derived; the Wikipedia table has 262,063 for 2013 vs 261,063 here. Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.

Data table (15 points)

Period	tonnes
2010	111,887
2011	116,539
2012	203,038
2013	261,063
2014	214,179
2015	226,323
2016	267,490
2017	351,416
2018	302,720
2019	281,389
2020	296,866
2021	411,115
2022	475,353
2023	760,067
2024	169,700

The claim

3 million tonnes of soya beans

President Hichilema, opening of the 14th National Assembly, 9 October 2026, p. 9, 39. No target year is given.

Baseline audit

Soya bean production

verification incomplete

Soya: no official 2025/26 figure; 288,793 t (2024/25 MoA forecast); about 450,000 t (analyst, 2025/26); record about 760,000 t (2023)

Against the speech: 3 Mt is about 4x the record and about 6.7x the analyst's 2025/26 figure.
Where it comes from: MoA forecast, an analyst, and FAOSTAT-derived data that disagree on years
What would make it wrong: The MoA/ZamStats 2025/26 soya figure.

All 7 records for C3

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
288,793.17	t, 2024/25 forecast (yield 0.98 t/ha, up from 169,700 t at 0.45 t/ha) “Soya beans production is expected to increase to 288,793.17 metric tonnes”	2024/25	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
0.98 t/ha	yield, 2024/25 forecast	2024/25	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
1.26 t/ha	yield, harvest year 2023 (the record crop; 1.08 t/ha in 2024)	2023	Soybean yields CSV secondary · CR:S30	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
450,000	t 2025/26 harvest projected (an analyst figure, not official) “Zambia's 2025/26 soybean harvest is projected at 450,000 tonnes.”	15 Jun 2026	Zambia positions for larger regional soymeal exports secondary · CR:S28	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
770,000	t (2024/25) and 760,000 t (2023/24) per a USDA table	snippet only	USDA FAS production page, Zambia secondary · CR:S54	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
760,067	t soybeans, harvest year 2023 (2022/23 season)	2023	Soybean production CSV secondary · CR:S29	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
450,000	t soybean MY 2022/2023; 'less than 300,000 t' in MY 2023/2024	2022/23	Zambia Country Commercial Guide, agriculture primary · CR:S26	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions (2), reported, never averaged

770,000 t (USDA table, 2024/25) vs 288,793 t (MoA forecast 2024/25) vs about 450,000 t (analyst, 2025/26). FAOSTAT-derived and Ecofin both put the 760,000 t record in 2023 (the 2022/23 season); the USDA snippet puts it under 2023/24, a year MoA and FAOSTAT put at about 170,000 t.
The PDU rain-fed wheat page states a soya target of 1 Mt (per a fetch summary; unverified) vs 3 Mt elsewhere.

What the target implies

Baseline From the 2023 record harvest From the 2024 drought harvest

18.7%growth a year, for 8 years

From 760,067 (2023) to 3 million by the end of 2031: 3.9x the baseline.

Best sustained pace on record: 20.2% a year (2018-2023, 5-year window)
Required ÷ best: 0.9x on paceproposed
Without the 25% base rule: best 37.7% (2004-2009), ratio 0.5x on paceproposed

Assumed target year2031

The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.

Note on the baseline: base is the record year (2023); there is no official 2025/26 figure and the 2024 drought harvest was about 170,000 t

Copy this page's address to share the assumed year and baseline choice.

Capital and delivery

Capital and delivery · draft discussion question

Which crushing, feed and export markets can absorb the extra crop?

Test farm expansion and processing together; reconcile shared irrigation, machinery and crop rotations before adding sector budgets.

Editorial question based on the cited audit items; the answer still needs verification. No cost verdict or financing commitment is established.

Evidence and limits

Audit records: C3. Sources: MoA / Parliament (CR:S10); OWID (CR:S30); Ecofin Agency (Commodity Insight Africa) (CR:S28); USDA (CR:S54).

Confidence in the underlying record: C3: Low. The sources conflict and the official 2025/26 figure is missing.

What would change the discussion: The MoA/ZamStats 2025/26 soya figure.

Competing explanation: better use of existing assets, shared infrastructure or a different product mix could change the required expansion; demand, water or commissioning constraints could limit its return.

Explore the project evidence and its limits →

Band, and what would change it

Proposed band at end-2031:on paceproposedWithout the 25% rule:on paceproposed

A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.

Proposed band for each target by assumed target year: required growth divided by the best pace on record.
Target	end-2028	end-2029	end-2030	end-2031	end-2032	end-2033	end-2034	end-2035
From the 2023 record harveststretch to 2030 · on pace from 2031	1.6x stretch	1.3x stretch	1.1x stretch	0.9x on pace	0.8x on pace	0.7x on pace	0.7x on pace	0.6x on pace
From the 2024 drought harvestbeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 2033	5.2x beyond precedent	3.8x beyond precedent	3.0x beyond precedent	2.5x beyond precedent	2.1x beyond precedent	1.9x stretch	1.6x stretch	1.5x stretch

on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.

All targets on the assumption map →

Confidence in the baseline: Low. The sources conflict and the official 2025/26 figure is missing.
What would change it: The MoA/ZamStats 2025/26 soya figure.

These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.