Zambia Bridge Independent analysis
2031 Metrics · independent analysis

What the Grow Zambia targets would take

M. V. Kaela, independent researcher and developer · independent analysis, not government-endorsed

On 9 October 2026 President Hichilema opened the 14th National Assembly with eight annual targets, the 10-10-5-3-3-1-1-1 Grow Zambia Agenda, framed as the aims of "the next five years".

Dated snapshot: 9 October 2026 · provisional comparisons, verification gaps labelled

The arithmetic in one chart

Growth needed against the best on record

Growth needed a year to arrive by end-2031, against the fastest sustained growth on record. The speech gives no target year; the year is ours to assume.

At end-2031, assumed: 4 of 7 need more than twice their best pace on record, 2 between once and twice, 1 at or below it. 1 cannot be assessed.

  1. 10 ElectricityFrom the regulator's end-2025 figure
    neededbestthe bestbeyond precedentproposed
  2. 10 MaizeFrom the 2025/26 crop forecast
    neededbestthe bestbeyond precedentproposed
  3. 5 TourismFrom the Minister's 2025 figure
    neededbestthe bestbeyond precedentproposed
  4. 3 CopperCompared with one set of USGS yearbooks
    neededbestthe bestbeyond precedentproposed
  5. 1 Beef exportsHerd of 11 million, from the April 2023 survey (a supporting target)
    neededbestthe beststretchproposed
  6. 1 WheatFrom the 2024 harvest
    neededbestthe beststretchproposed
  7. 3 Soya beansFrom the 2023 record harvest
    neededbestthe beston paceproposed
  8. 1 SugarNo national series or pace on record
    No national series or pace on record

best sustained pace on recordgrowth needed a yearSelect any figure for its receipt. Bands are a proposed rule; arithmetic, not a forecast.

  1. End-2031, assumed. The speech gives no target year, so every figure here assumes the end of 2031 and says so.
  2. Its own record. Each target is checked against its own baseline, set against the fastest growth Zambia has sustained before.
  3. Arithmetic, not a forecast. Each is given a band that states the arithmetic, not a forecast.

The eight targets, against their own record

8 targets shown · baseline readiness is a draft assessment

  1. 1010 million tonnes of maize a yearverification caveat15.2% a year needed from 4.94 million (2026)2.4x the best pace on recordbeyond precedentproposed
  2. 1010,000 MW of generation capacityreconciliation pending16.0% a year needed from 4,108 (2025)2.5x the best pace on recordbeyond precedentproposed
  3. 55 million international tourist arrivals a yearreconciliation pending13.8% a year needed from 2.3 million (2025)2.3x the best pace on recordbeyond precedentproposed
  4. 33 million tonnes of copper a yearverification caveat22.4% a year needed from 890,346 (2025)2.2x the best pace on recordbeyond precedentproposed
  5. 33 million tonnes of soya beansverification incomplete18.7% a year needed from 760,067 (2023)0.9x the best pace on recordon paceproposed
  6. 11 million tonnes of wheatverification caveat26.0% a year needed from 198,886 (2024)1.3x the best pace on recordstretchproposed
  7. 11 million tonnes of sugarverification incompleteNo national series or pace on record to compare withnot assessableproposed
  8. 1US$1 billion a year from beef exportsverification incompleteNo national series or pace on record to compare withHerd of 11 million, from the April 2023 survey: 1.5x the best pacenot assessableproposed

recorded needed for the target best pace on record, carried forward target

on paceproposed at or below the best sustained pace on recordstretchproposed 1x to 2xbeyond precedentproposed more than 2xnot assessableproposed no usable baseline

Bands are a proposed rule, not yet adopted. Paces exclude growth from a collapsed base (the 25% rule, also a proposal).

How much the bands depend on our choices

Three choices sit behind every band: the year we assume (the speech gives none), what we compare against, and where "beyond precedent" begins. Change them and watch which bands move. Stability within these settings does not validate the baseline or establish feasibility.

Compare the pace needed with
“Beyond precedent” starts at

Targetend-2028end-2029end-2030end-2031end-2032end-2033end-2034end-2035
10 MaizeFrom the 2025/26 crop forecastbeyond precedent to 2031 · stretch from 20326.6x4.1x3.0x2.4x1.9x1.7x1.4x1.3x
10 ElectricityFrom the regulator's end-2025 figurebeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 20335.4x3.9x3.0x2.5x2.1x1.8x1.6x1.5x
5 TourismFrom the Minister's 2025 figurebeyond precedent to 2031 · stretch from 20324.9x3.6x2.8x2.3x2.0x1.7x1.5x1.3x
3 CopperCompared with one set of USGS yearbooksbeyond precedent to 2031 · stretch from 20324.8x3.4x2.7x2.2x1.8x1.6x1.4x1.2x
3 CopperCompared with another set of USGS yearbooksbeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 20335.9x4.2x3.2x2.6x2.2x1.9x1.7x1.5x
3 Soya beansFrom the 2023 record harveststretch to 2030 · on pace from 20311.6x1.3x1.1x0.9x0.8x0.7x0.7x0.6x
3 Soya beansFrom the 2024 drought harvestbeyond precedent to 2032 · stretch from 20335.2x3.8x3.0x2.5x2.1x1.9x1.6x1.5x
1 WheatFrom the 2024 harvestbeyond precedent to 2028 · stretch 2029-2032 · on pace from 20332.4x1.9x1.5x1.3x1.1x1.0x0.9x0.8x
1 WheatFrom the 2025/26 forecast (press)beyond precedent to 2033 · stretch from 203412.3x6.4x4.3x3.2x2.5x2.1x1.8x1.6x
1 Beef exportsHerd of 11 million, from the April 2023 surveybeyond precedent to 2029 · stretch 2030-2034 · on pace from 20352.5x2.1x1.7x1.5x1.3x1.2x1.1x1.0x
Double the economyNominal GDP in US$, twice the 2021 levelstretch to 2029 · on pace from 20301.6x1.2x0.9x0.8x0.6x0.6x0.5x0.4x
10 MaizeIrrigation, 500,000 hanot assessable: no time series; the baseline is 155,000-250,000 ha depending on source.
1 Sugar1 million tonnes of sugarnot assessable: no national refined-sugar series; the only primary tonnage is 397,032 t (Zambia Sugar Plc, FY2021) with 445,000 t of plant capacity.
1 Beef exportsUS$1 billion a year from beef exportsnot assessable: from US$1.0m (Comtrade 2024) or about US$5.9m (2025, converted from kwacha) there is no pace on record at scale.
on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.

What the audit found first

Before any feasibility question, several starting figures, in the 9 October speech and in the President's 7 October Energy Forum address, do not match the record we could find. Each finding says which. Each finding carries its confidence, what would make it wrong, and a competing explanation.

  1. 01The speech's 'current 2.5 million' tourist arrivals is not corroborated by the sources reviewed.
    Provisional reading · confidence: high
    Basis
    Documented: 2,199,802 (2024, ministry counter), about 2.3 million (2025, Minister); H1 2026 reported down 6.6%.
    Would be wrong if
    A Ministry of Tourism release showing 2.5 million for a 12-month period.
    Competing explanation
    The 2.5 figure may come from a 2026 projection or an internal estimate.

    See Tourism

  2. 02The PDU describes 5.1 million tonnes of maize as grain plus seed; reconciliation with the MoA's 4.94 Mt forecast remains pending.
    Provisional reading · confidence: medium
    Basis
    The PDU page splits 5.1 Mt into about 4.9 Mt grain and 200,000 t seed (re-opened); the MoA page says 4,937,605 t and a previous record of 3.9 Mt.
    Would be wrong if
    The ZamStats survey report showing 4,937,605 already includes seed.
    Competing explanation
    The 5.1 may be a rounded 4.94 + 0.18.

    See Maize

  3. 03The 1,027 MW solar and 4,722 MW capacity figures are from the 7 Oct Energy Forum address, not the 9 Oct Parliament speech, and remain unreconciled with the regulator's earlier figures.
    Provisional reading · confidence: high that they were said and where; low on whether they are right
    Basis
    Speech text has no such figures (checked); ERB: 308 MW solar and 4,107.86 MW total at end-2025.
    Would be wrong if
    A primary Ministry document reconciling the figures to ERB.
    Competing explanation
    ERB may be reporting grid-tied, commissioned plant while the Ministry counts plant under commissioning.

    See Electricity

  4. 04'3,777 MW in 2024', said in the 7 Oct Energy Forum address (not the 9 Oct speech), is ERB's 2022 total, not its 2024 total (3,885.86 MW).
    Provisional reading · confidence: high
    Basis
    ERB 2022 report 3,777.3 MW; ERB 2024 3,885.86 MW; the 9 Oct speech text has no MW figure except the 10,000 MW target (checked).
    Would be wrong if
    An ERB restatement of 2024 to 3,777 MW.
    Competing explanation
    The Ministry may use a different basis (firm vs installed capacity).

    See Electricity

  5. 05Copper at 890,346 t needs 22.4% a year to reach 3 Mt by 2031, against a best past 5-year pace of 8-10%.
    Provisional reading · confidence: medium
    Basis
    Ministry 2025 output (two outlets re-opened); the pace is my arithmetic on USGS series with mixed vintages.
    Would be wrong if
    A reconciled national series showing a faster past pace, or a 2031 date that moves.
    Competing explanation
    Much of the 3 Mt may come from capacity that is already financed, which past paces would not capture.

    See Copper

  6. 06The reviewed reserves series peaks at US$6.5bn in February and May 2026; the latest audited print is US$6.0bn in July. An all-time record remains subject to the historical coverage limit.
    Provisional reading · confidence: high
    Basis
    BoZ MPR and Governor's deck (both re-opened).
    Would be wrong if
    BoZ August/September reserves above US$6.5bn.
    Competing explanation
    Months of import cover tell a different story on different bases.
  7. 07Fuel excise returned in October, but VAT on fuel stays zero-rated until 1 December 2026.
    Provisional reading · confidence: high
    Basis
    ERB statement of 30 Sep 2026 (re-opened).
    Would be wrong if
    A revised SI.
    Competing explanation
    The speech may be summarising only the excise decision.
  8. 08None of the four named fuel pipelines is past MoU, cabinet approval or feasibility stage in anything opened.
    Provisional reading · confidence: medium
    Basis
    Cabinet Office statement of 22 Apr 2026 and press; no financier, FID or construction found.
    Would be wrong if
    A financing or construction announcement.
    Competing explanation
    Private promoters may be ahead of public reporting.
  9. 09The audited 2024 trade figure and provisional 2025 conversion put beef export earnings at about US$1-6 million a year, on different reporting bases, against a US$1 billion target.
    Provisional reading · confidence: medium
    Basis
    UN Comtrade 2024 US$1.03m (re-opened); 2025 about US$5.9m converted from a ministry kwacha figure.
    Would be wrong if
    US$ trade data for 2025 showing much higher values.
    Competing explanation
    The 2025 kwacha figure may include other products or be mis-converted.

    See Beef exports

How to read this

  • Claims, not people.

    The same standard for what went well and what did not. Verified gains are shown too.

  • Every number has a source and a date.

    Click through to the record. Where sources disagree, both are shown; they are never averaged.

  • Three kinds of statement

    What a source reports, our arithmetic on it, and our reading, always labelled.

  • A band is arithmetic, not a forecast.

    It compares the growth a target needs with the best growth on record. It is never a probability.

  • Dated snapshots, not live feeds.

    Pages are updated when new official figures appear, with a corrections log.

Evidence tags: Va primary source opened by a research agent La lead (secondary, or not opened) Dour arithmetic. Records we re-opened ourselves are marked with their log entry.