2031 Metrics · cross-cutting
Track record
What earlier plans promised and what happened, and the fastest growth each series has sustained. This is the precedent the bands compare against.
Provisional historical comparison. Outcomes and standings remain subject to source definitions and revisions; they are not a causal score of government performance. Source registry · Verification limits.
Past targets against outcomes
13 past targets or paths, by standing as recorded:5 missed2 mixed1 claimed met4 still open1 unknownA count of the rows below, not a score.
| Plan | Metric | Target (set by) | Outcome | Standing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8NDP | Real GDP growth | path 3.5 / 3.7 / 4.4 / 4.2 / 4.5% for 2022-26; 'at least 4.5 percent by 2026' (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | 2022 5.2; 2023 5.4; 2024 3.8; 2025 3.8 (ZamStats preliminary, 26 Mar 2026) | mixed beat the path in 2022-23 (+1.7pp each), missed in 2024-25 (-0.6, -0.4pp); 2026 open |
| 8NDP | Inflation | <10% end-2022; 6-8% end-2023 to end-2026 (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | December y/y: 2022 9.9; 2023 13.1; 2024 16.7; 2025 11.2 (BoZ table, via the macro report); Sep 2026 6.1 | mostly missed end-2022 met (9.9 < 10); end-2023, end-2024 and end-2025 outside 6-8; back in the band from Feb 2026 (7.5); 2026 year-end open |
| 8NDP | Installed electricity capacity (MW) | 4,457 MW by 2026 (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | ERB: 4,107.86 MW at end-2025. Ministry claims: 4,576 MW (reported Sep 2026) and 4,722 MW (7 Oct 2026), not reconciled to ERB | open (end-2026) regulator figure is 92.2% of the target one year early; the Ministry figures would exceed it |
| 8NDP | Copper output (t) | 1.5 Mt by 2026 (3 Mt by 2032 in the same plan) (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | 2025: 890,346 t (three outlets agree); H1 2026: 447,181.93 t, +0.45% y/y | open (end-2026) 2025 is 59.4% of 1.5 Mt and only 22,346 t above the 2020 baseline; 1.5 Mt in 2026 would need about 1.05 Mt in H2 2026 |
| 8NDP | International tourist arrivals | 3 million a year by 2026 (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | 2025: about 2.3 million (Tourism Minister, Mar 2026); 2024: 2.2 million; H1 2026 reported down 6.6% y/y | open (end-2026) 2025 is 76.7% of the target; the H1 2026 figure is secondary press only |
| 8NDP | Other 8NDP targets and the scorecard | agricultural growth at least 10% a year; agricultural exports above US$2bn by 2026 (GoZ / MoFNP, Aug 2022) | Outcomes not found. Maize and irrigation had no numeric targets in the 8NDP volume opened. 2023 annual progress report, per press: 485 of 1,053 targets achieved (46%), 109 partial, 459 unmet | unknown the results framework sits in a separate M&E document that was unreachable; the scorecard is secondary |
| Presidential | 1,000 MW solar (Presidential Solar Initiative) | 1,000 MW by end-2025; restated for end-2026 in Sep 2026 (President Hichilema, 7 Mar 2025 (earliest dated statement opened)) | ERB end-2025: 308 MW. Ministry end-Jul 2026: 841 MW (pv magazine could identify about 614 MW). 7-8 Oct 2026: 'attained', 1,027 MW (Ministry of Energy page, re-opened) | claimed met, about nine months after the original deadline (unaudited) ZESCO's own director expected 'close to 500-800MW' by end-2025; no formal extension notice found; the 1,027 MW figure has no plant breakdown |
| Ministry of Finance / Mines | 1 Mt copper in 2025 | 1,000,000 t in 2025 (Finance Minister Musokotwane, 5 Apr 2024 ('by the end of 2025 to 2026'); medium-term plan Jul 2024 says 2027) | 890,346 t in 2025 | missed 89.0% of target, short by 109,654 t; the target year moved between 2025, 2026 and 2027 across statements; officials still say 1 Mt in 2026 |
| Copper strategy | 3 Mt copper by 2031 | 3,000,000 t by 2031 (Mines Minister Kabuswe, strategy launched on a Thursday reported 30 Aug 2024 (the 8NDP said 2032)) | 890,346 t in 2025 = 29.7% of target; H1 2026 +0.45%; Permanent Secretary, 23 Jul 2026: 'remains on track' | open (2031) 22.4% a year needed from 2025 (arithmetic); the Ministry's own lede says on track |
| Zambia Tourism Agency | 2.4 million tourists in 2025 | 2.4 million in 2025 (Zambia Tourism Agency CEO (Mail & Guardian, 28 Sep 2025)) | about 2.3 million (Minister, Mar 2026); Dec 2025: 2.0 million by October, 'on course to surpass' | missed by about 4% (rounded figure) 95.8% of the target on a rounded 2.3 million; no Agency full-year release found |
| 7NDP | Real GDP growth | average above 5% a year; path 3.9 / 4.6 / 5.2 / 5.4 / 5.5 for 2017-21 (GoZ / MNDP, 2017) | 8NDP (Aug 2022): average 1.4% for 2017-21. World Bank series now: 3.53, 4.03, 1.44, -2.79, 6.23 (average 2.49%, arithmetic); the 2021 value was revised from 3.6% to 6.2% | missed about 28-50% of the target growth depending on data vintage |
| 7NDP | Inflation, deficit and reserves | single-digit inflation (7.0% path); deficit under 3% of GDP; reserves of at least 4 months of imports (GoZ / MNDP, 2017) | inflation averaged 12.0%; deficit averaged 9.6% (peak 14.4% in 2020); reserves 4.4 months in 2021 | inflation and deficit missed; reserves met from the 8NDP's review of the 7NDP period |
| 7NDP era | Copper forecast for 2015 | 800,000 t for 2015 (Government forecast cited in the 7NDP) | 2015 output 710,560 t | missed 88.8% of the forecast; the 7NDP narrative opened has no numeric 2021 targets for copper, electricity, maize or tourism |
Required pace against the record, end-2031 assumed
growth needed a year best sustained pace on record best pace, any base (the 25% rule off)
| Target | Base (year) | Needed a year | Best on record | Ratio | Without 25% rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Installed electricity capacity (10,000 MW) base is ERB end-2025; Ministry's 4,722 MW (Oct 2026) would lower the required pace but is unreconciled | 4,108 (2025) | 16.0% | 6.4% (2020-2025) | 2.5x | 2.5x |
| Copper output (3 Mt) base is the Ministry's 2025 figure; USGS series ends earlier and counts differently | 890,346 (2025) | 22.4% | 10.3% (2004-2009) | 2.2x | 1.5x |
| Copper output (3 Mt), other yearbook vintage the track-record agent's yearbook vintages give a slower best pace (2004-2009) | 890,346 (2025) | 22.4% | 8.5% (2005-2010) | 2.6x | 2.6x |
| Maize (10 Mt) base is the 2025/26 forecast (harvest year 2026); best past pace starts from a low base; a previous record was reached only after a 2024 drought low | 4.94 million (2026) | 15.2% | 6.4% (2021-2026) | 2.4x | 0.6x |
| Tourist arrivals (5 million) base is the Minister's rounded 2025 figure; the speech says current is 2.5 million (not found in any source) | 2.3 million (2025) | 13.8% | 6.0% (2014-2019) | 2.3x | 2.3x |
| Cattle herd (11 million) base is the April 2023 survey, the latest measured count; no timeframe is given in the press reports | 5.12 million (2023) | 10.0% | 6.6% (2018-2023) | 1.5x | 1.5x |
| Wheat (1 Mt) base is the 2024 value; the 2025/26 forecast is 81,822 t (secondary); no official national baseline | 198,886 (2024) | 26.0% | 20.4% (2006-2011) | 1.3x | 1.3x |
| Soya (3 Mt) base is the record year (2023); there is no official 2025/26 figure and the 2024 drought harvest was about 170,000 t | 760,067 (2023) | 18.7% | 20.2% (2018-2023) | 0.9x | 0.5x |
| Soya (3 Mt), from the 2024 drought harvest sensitivity: the same target from the drought-year base; shows how much the soya reading depends on which baseline is used | 169,700 (2024) | 50.7% | 20.2% (2018-2023) | 2.5x | 1.3x |
| Wheat (1 Mt), from the 2025/26 forecast sensitivity: the 2025/26 forecast is secondary press and the crop was not yet harvested | 81,822 (2026) | 65.0% | 20.4% (2006-2011) | 3.2x | 3.2x |
| Nominal GDP (double the 2021 level) target = 2 x US$22.1bn (2021) = US$44.2bn; the IMF's own April 2026 vintage reaches 2.09x in 2028 (see M3) | 28.88 (2025) | 7.4% | 9.7% (2020-2025) | 0.8x | 0.2x |
Not assessable
Sugar (1 Mt)
no national refined-sugar series; the only primary tonnage is 397,032 t (Zambia Sugar Plc, FY2021) with 445,000 t of plant capacity.
Beef exports (US$1 billion)
from US$1.0m (Comtrade 2024) or about US$5.9m (2025, converted from kwacha) there is no pace on record at scale.
Irrigation (500,000 ha)
no time series; the baseline is 155,000-250,000 ha depending on source.
Electricity
the one exception on record is solar, from about 178 MW to a claimed 1,027 MW in about two years (unaudited), which is outside the ERB totals' own history.
Ratio = growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained pace on record. The proposed bands (not yet adopted) read 1x or less as on pace, 1x to 2x as stretch, more than 2x as beyond precedent. Arithmetic, not a forecast.