2031 Metrics · target 1 of 8 · code 10

10 million tonnes of maize a year

Explore the evidence first. End-2031 is assumed; the speech gives no year. Read the President's claim ↓

Baseline: (2026)
Target: by end-2031, assumed
Growth needed: a year
Best on record: a year
Needed ÷ best: beyond precedentproposed

Dotted figures open their receipts: the source, its date and how each number is calculated.

To reconcile the maize comparison (C1–C2), we would need to check whether grain and seed figures overlap, align irrigation-area definitions and distinguish the crop forecast used here from the final harvest. Inspect the evidence ↓

The record

Maize production by harvest year (tonnes)

Focus the chart and use Left and Right to read each year; Home and End jump to its limits.

Recorded
Required path
Best pace on record, carried forward (not a forecast)
Target

Source: Maize production CSV (OWID). Source note: OWID/FAOSTAT-derived; season labels inferred by matching MoA values; 2024/25 and 2025/26 are MoA forecasts; the final-vs-forecast status of earlier values is not labelled. Lines join consecutive years only; a gap means no figure for that year. The dashed line is arithmetic, not a forecast: the fastest 5-year growth on record (rebounds from a collapse left out), continued from the baseline.

Data table (17 points)

Period	tonnes
2009/10	2,795,483
2010/11	3,020,380
2011/12	2,852,687
2012/13	2,532,800
2013/14	3,350,671
2014/15	2,618,221
2015/16	2,873,052
2016/17	3,606,549
2017/18	2,394,907
2018/19	2,004,389
2019/20	3,387,470
2020/21	3,620,244
2021/22	2,706,243
2022/23	3,261,686
2023/24	1,511,143
2024/25	3,655,646
2025/26	4,937,605

Explore the levers

A harvest is harvested area × yield. Drag the orange point, or use the sliders, to see which combinations reach 10 million tonnes, and how far one lever alone would have to move.

Harvest4.94 Mt49% of the 10 Mt target

Harvested area 1.90 million haYield 2.60 t/ha

Yield needed on this area: 5.26 t/ha
Area needed at this yield: 3.85 million ha

Area and yield for 2024/25 and 2025/26: GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, harvested-hectare basis. The Ministry's own yields are per planted hectare and lower.
Yields elsewhere: Maize yields CSV. The band spans Zambia's yields in the sampled years (2010, 2015, 2020, 2023, 2024), starting 2010.
Weather can halve a harvest: in the 2023/24 drought the crop was 1.51 million tonnes. Irrigation (the 500,000 ha pledge) would raise both levers, but no irrigated maize yield series exists in the evidence, so it is not modelled.
This is arithmetic on recorded figures, not a forecast.

Yield data table (t/ha)

Country	2010	2015	2020	2023	2024
Zambia	2.59	3.03	2.54	2.3	2.21
South Africa	4.67	3.49	5.45	6.35	4.87
Malawi	2.02	1.66	2.1	1.96	2
Tanzania	1.55	1.56	1.6	1.91	1.76
Africa	2.02	1.95	2.17	2.14	2.07

The claim

10 million tonnes of maize

President Hichilema, opening of the 14th National Assembly, 9 October 2026, p. 9, 39. No target year is given.

Related claims in the speech

reportedLast season's maize crop was a record 5.1 million tonnes. (p. 9)
targetExtension, affordable finance, farm blocks, agro-processing hubs, storage and markets will be developed to reach the crop targets. (p. 10)
target500,000 hectares of land will be put under irrigation. (p. 10)

Baseline audit

Maize production

verification caveat

Maize 4,937,605 t forecast (2025/26, MoA); PDU reports about 4.9 Mt grain plus about 0.2 Mt seed; scope reconciliation pending; previous record 3.9 Mt (MoA) / 3.66 Mt (forecast)

Against the speech: The PDU's grain-plus-seed description may reconcile 5.1 Mt with the MoA forecast. The survey's inclusion of seed still needs confirmation; the implied increase depends on the chosen comparator.
Where it comes from: One survey: MoA (re-opened), USDA and PDU (re-opened) all trace to it; the seed figure rests on the PDU page and an unopened Lusaka Times item
What would make it wrong: The ZamStats survey report stating whether 4,937,605 includes seed.

All 14 records for C1

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
4,937,605	t maize, 2025/26 Crop Forecasting Survey (a projection, released about 26 May 2026) “with this year's harvest projected at 4,937,605 metric tonnes”	2025/26	Zambia projected to produce nearly 5 million MT of maize official-comms · CR:S1	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	Logged source recheck: V07
4,937	kt production; area planted 2,360 kha; harvested 1,900 kha; yield 2.6 t/ha	MY 2026/27 = Zambia's 2025/26	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
1,900	kha area harvested	2025/26	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
2.6 t/ha	yield per harvested hectare	2025/26	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
1,691	kha area harvested	2024/25	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
2.3 t/ha	yield per harvested hectare	2024/25	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
3.9 million	t 'last year's record maize output' as stated on the same MoA page “exceeding last year's record maize output of 3.9 million metric tonnes”	2024/25	Zambia projected to produce nearly 5 million MT of maize official-comms · CR:S1	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	Logged source recheck: V07
5.1 million	t = roughly 4.9 Mt of grain maize + 200,000 t of seed maize “roughly 4.9 million tonnes of grain maize”	2025/26	Beyond the Bumper Harvest official-comms · CR:S5	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	Logged source recheck: V08
182,311	t seed maize (reported by the Secretary to the Cabinet)	2025/26	Zambia anticipates 4.9 million mt of maize secondary · CR:S7	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
exceeding 5.1 million metric tonnes	attributed to the 2025/26 survey by a Luapula provincial official “exceeding 5.1 million metric tonnes”	3 Jun 2026	Luapula cassava/maize provincial secondary · CR:S6	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
3,655,645.59	t maize grain, 2024/25 MoA forecast (the previous 'record') “surpassing the 3.6 million metric tonnes estimated in the 2020/2021 Agricultural Season”	2024/25	Ministerial Statement, 2024/25 crop yield primary · CR:S10	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
3,865	kt, 2024/25 revised after the post-harvest survey	2024/25	GAIN ZA2026-0001 Zambia's Record Corn Production secondary · CR:S8	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
1,667,921.15	t bought by the Food Reserve Agency against a 534,000 t plan	2025 marketing season	FRA 2025/26 purchases and exports secondary · CR:S49	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
2.0 million	ha planted, up 17% (Sihlobo)	2025/26	Zambia has its largest maize harvest on record secondary · CR:S15	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions (4), reported, never averaged

5.1 Mt vs 4.94 Mt: the likely reconciliation is grain + seed vs grain only, stated by one page (the PDU). The 2024/25 comparator (3.66 Mt) was labelled 'maize grain', so 5.1 vs 3.66 would compare unlike bases; the like-for-like grain figure is about 4.9 Mt. Whether 4,937,605 itself includes seed is not stated on any opened page.
2024/25 final: 3.5 Mt (World Bank PID), 3.66 Mt (MoA May 2025 forecast), 3.8 Mt implied by '29.3% above prior season' (arithmetic), 3.865-3.9 Mt (USDA, Kangwa as relayed). Take care which one the speech uses as 'previous'.
Area and yield differ by definition: MoA yield is per planted ha (inferred); USDA yield is per harvested ha; FAOSTAT 2.2 t/ha for 2023/24 vs MoA 0.68 t/ha shows the effect.
Target year for 10 Mt: 2031 (World Bank PID, PDU, USDA), 2030 (Feb 2026 statement), 2027 (Zambia Monitor Jan 2025, summarised).

Irrigation

reconciliation pending

Irrigated area about 250,000 ha (World Bank PID, 2026) vs about 155,000 ha (World Bank 2022); target 500,000 ha 'by 2031' (total) or 'additional' (MoA)

8 records, against the speech and kill criterion

Against the speech: The speech says 'put 500,000 hectares under irrigation' with no baseline; the gap to close is +250,000 to +500,000 ha depending on source and wording.
What would make it wrong: An MoA or FAO AQUASTAT figure with a definition.

Value	What it is	As of	Source	Tag	Re-opened
500,000	ha of irrigated agriculture by 2031 (total) “prompted a presidential decree to reach 500,000 hectares of irrigated agriculture by 2031”	target	Project Information Document P514111 (ISAT) primary · CR:S16	V · Primary source opened	Logged source recheck: V22
500,000	ha 'additional' to be placed under irrigation by 2031 “aims to place an additional 500,000 hectares of land under irrigation by 2031”	May 2026	140 households benefit ... solar irrigation Chipata official-comms · CR:S20	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
250,000	ha reported irrigated, of 2.75 million ha of irrigable land “only approximately 250,000 hectares are reported irrigated”	2 May 2026 (source year not given)	Project Information Document P514111 (ISAT) primary · CR:S16	V · Primary source opened	Logged source recheck: V22
155,000	ha irrigated, of 2.75 million ha potential “out of the potential 2.75 million ha of irrigable land, only about 155,000 ha”	24 May 2022 (cites GRZ 2013)	Zambia Growth Opportunities Program technical assessment primary · CR:S17	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
423,000	ha irrigation potential; '150,000 or 35%' used	Dec 2015	USD 115M irrigation article secondary · CR:S25	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged
10,000	ha of new farmer-led irrigation targeted by ISAT sub-component 1.2 (US$100M IDA grant, estimated approval 14 Jul 2026)	2026	Project Information Document P514111 (ISAT) primary · CR:S16	V · Primary source opened	No independent recheck logged
250,000 / 345,000 / 500,000	ha of new irrigation needed: from the 250k baseline (total reading) / from the 155k baseline / under the 'additional' reading	arithmetic	Project Information Document P514111 (ISAT) derived · CR:S16	D · Calculated from cited inputs	No independent recheck logged
~90	% of corn grown rain-fed	Sep 2025	GAIN ZA2025-0001 Zambia Resumes Corn Exports secondary · CR:S9	L · Verification pending: secondary or unopened	No independent recheck logged

Conflicts and cautions, reported, never averaged:

The 'potential' ranges from 200,000 to 2.75 million ha and the 'irrigated' figure from about 100,000 to 250,000 ha, with different definitions; they do not form a time series.
Total vs additional: 'to reach 500,000 ha by 2031' (World Bank, PDU) vs 'an additional 500,000 ha' (MoA, May 2026).
The 'farm blocks' (Shikabeta about 36,900 ha, Luena 186,000, Kalumwange about 159,800, Kalungwishi about 202,927) are land areas, not irrigated areas.
A '129,303 ha secured' claim appeared only in a search summary of a blocked Lusaka Times page and is not on the PDU page opened.

What the target implies

Note: Irrigation (500,000 ha): no time series; the baseline is 155,000-250,000 ha depending on source.

15.2%growth a year, for 5 years

From 4.94 million (2026) to 10 million by the end of 2031: 2.0x the baseline.

Best sustained pace on record: 6.4% a year (2021-2026, 5-year window)
Required ÷ best: 2.4x beyond precedentproposed
Without the 25% base rule: best 26.4% (2005-2010), ratio 0.6x on paceproposed

Assumed target year2031

The speech states no year; end-2031 is our assumption, the end of the five years the speech refers to. The 25% rule leaves out growth from a collapsed base (an analyst choice, not yet adopted). Bands are a proposal, not a forecast or a probability.

Note on the baseline: base is the 2025/26 forecast (harvest year 2026); best past pace starts from a low base; a previous record was reached only after a 2024 drought low

Copy this page's address to share the assumed year and baseline choice.

Capital and delivery

Capital and delivery · draft discussion question

Which combination of area, yield and reliable water delivers the extra harvest, and who buys it?

Cost irrigation against a reconciled area definition; check storage, transport and farm margins alongside output.

Editorial question based on the cited audit items; the answer still needs verification. No cost verdict or financing commitment is established.

Evidence and limits

Audit records: C1, C2. Sources: Min. of Agriculture (CR:S1); USDA FAS Pretoria (APEDA mirror) (CR:S8); Presidential Delivery Unit (CR:S5); Lusaka Times (CR:S7).

Confidence in the underlying record: C1: Medium-high on the 4.94 Mt forecast (MoA primary plus USDA, both tracing to one survey). Medium-low on what the 5.1 Mt figure covers. C2: Low-medium. The target is well documented; the baseline is not.

What would change the discussion: The ZamStats survey report stating whether 4,937,605 includes seed. An MoA or FAO AQUASTAT figure with a definition.

Competing explanation: better use of existing assets, shared infrastructure or a different product mix could change the required expansion; demand, water or commissioning constraints could limit its return.

Explore the project evidence and its limits →

Band, and what would change it

Proposed band at end-2031:beyond precedentproposedWithout the 25% rule:on paceproposed

A band compares the required pace with the best pace on record. It is arithmetic, not a forecast and not a probability. The band rule is a proposal, not yet adopted.

Proposed band for each target by assumed target year: required growth divided by the best pace on record.
Target	end-2028	end-2029	end-2030	end-2031	end-2032	end-2033	end-2034	end-2035
From the 2025/26 crop forecastbeyond precedent to 2031 · stretch from 2032	6.6x beyond precedent	4.1x beyond precedent	3.0x beyond precedent	2.4x beyond precedent	1.9x stretch	1.7x stretch	1.4x stretch	1.3x stretch
Irrigation, 500,000 ha	not assessable: no time series; the baseline is 155,000-250,000 ha depending on source.

on pace: at or below the best pace on recordstretchbeyond precedentnot assessableEach cell: growth needed a year ÷ the best sustained growth on record. The outlined column is the default year. A proposed rule, not yet adopted; not a forecast.

All targets on the assumption map →

Confidence in the baseline: Medium-high on the 4.94 Mt forecast (MoA primary plus USDA, both tracing to one survey). Medium-low on what the 5.1 Mt figure covers.
What would change it: The ZamStats survey report stating whether 4,937,605 includes seed.

Audit findings for this target

The PDU describes 5.1 million tonnes of maize as grain plus seed; reconciliation with the MoA's 4.94 Mt forecast remains pending. Provisional reading · confidence: medium
Evidence: The PDU page splits 5.1 Mt into about 4.9 Mt grain and 200,000 t seed (re-opened); the MoA page says 4,937,605 t and a previous record of 3.9 Mt. Kill criterion: The ZamStats survey report showing 4,937,605 already includes seed. Competing explanation: The 5.1 may be a rounded 4.94 + 0.18.

These are provisional readings of the cited evidence. See the notes above and what we would need to check to strengthen the comparisons.